A Decade of Vision Zero: Gauging Progress & Barriers

A decade into Vision Zero in the United States, it’s natural to ask: Is it working?

The answer is complicated. Nationally, traffic deaths increased by 30% between 2014 and 2022, with especially high spikes during the Covid years. Pedestrian deaths in the US  reached a 41-year high in 2022 and is the highest among 28 high-income countries.

Yet, when we look at early-adopter communities who have been at it for 10 years and implemented significant Safe System changes, there are encouraging signs of progress. See examples here and here and here.

We asked three local road safety leaders about their take on the question of whether Vision Zero efforts are improving their individual communities. Staff from Austin, TX; Seattle, WA, and Louisville, KY, spoke on a panel in the annual Vision Zero Cities Conference; the recording will be added here soon.

Our top takeaway: progress is real but uneven. It’s been slower and less dramatic than we all want, yet communities are seeing positive change following Vision Zero commitments – often starting with quiet, foundational, internal shifts that set the stage for long-term results. Local leaders highlighted the need to:

• Scale up what works — small changes bring small benefits.
• Shift internal culture so safety is built into every decision.
• Start where you have control, while planting seeds for longer-term state and federal safety coordination

1. Scale up What Works

Notable examples of measurable, large-scale safety gains are seen in cities making sustained investments in Safe System policies:

• NYC reduced traffic deaths by more than 12% and pedestrian deaths, specifically, by 45% between 2013 and 2023 by investing early in systemic safety improvements, such as lowering speed limits citywide to 25 mph, adding speed safety cameras, installing leading pedestrian intervals, retiming traffic signals and increasing the number of street redesign projects to slow speeds.
• Hoboken, NJ has achieved eight consecutive years without a traffic death. This has been part of a holistic efforts including citywide 20 mph speed limits, coordinated signal timing and design for safety; (protected bike lanes, leading pedestrian intervals, enhanced crosswalks and curb extensions, reducing travel lane widths and daylighting intersections).

For most early-adopters, the results are more complex. While overall traffic death numbers have not fallen dramatically, most have lower traffic death rates than the national average. And, Vision Zero cities are seeing safer conditions where Safe System investments are made.

Austin's information-packed 10-year Vision Zero report is worth reading! The city’s roadway fatalities have remained stubbornly high – mirroring national trends – but serious injuries have declined, with 2024 recording the fewest since the city's Vision Zero’s adoption. The report cites barriers that many U.S. communities are painfully aware of: “an inherited built environment that historically prioritized speed over safety, uncertainty in federal policies and funding and the rising size and weight of vehicles on our roads.” State constraints add further headwinds (more below on that topic).

Yet, the report is clear: “where we invest in safety we see significantly fewer crashes, injuries and fatalities.” Examples include:

• An 86% reduction in serious/fatal crashes at traffic-calmed sites
• A 15% reduction on arterials with lowered speeds
• A 22% drop at high-crash intersections with safety upgrades (versus a 1% increase citywide)
• Annual savings of $28M in crash-related costs

See more clear, measurable Vision Zero results in the graphic below from Austin’s report. Austin plans to double down on  what works, scaling up proven strategies and expanding  regional partnerships.

Seattle shows a similar pattern: overall deaths have plateaued but are trending downward since 2021, with drops in pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities. After reducing speed limits to 25mph citywide and adding 2,500 speed limit signs, injury crashes fell 20%  on downtown arterials, and 11% elsewhere. These systemic improvements laid the foundation for Seattle’s broader speed management program combining traffic calming, speed safety cameras and state-level coordination on additional speed limiting measures.

Other early adopters see significant, measurable progress where they invest, including:

• San Francisco, CA which evaluated safety performance on 18 corridors where similar safety tools reduced collisions by 18%, increased bicycling by 75%, and decreased pedestrian-vehicle close calls by 38%.
• Washington, DC's  is measurable safety results include halving injury crashes after street redesigns.
• Portland, OR reduced top-end speeding by 72%, with travel lane conversions to center turn lanes with pedestrian islands; and by 94% on four corridors after adding speed safety cameras.

The lesson: scaling up proven measures scales up roadway safety outcomes.

2. Shifting Internal Culture & Systematizing Safety

A common theme among Vision Zero cities’ is the importance of shifting agency practices and internal culture to make safety a true priority in everyday decision-making.

Seattle uses a Complete Streets Checklist, requiring every major capital project to undergo a safety analysis, looking at crash patterns and integrating proactive safety measures, such as no-turn-on-red policies. As Kristina Curtiss, Senior Transportation Planner for Vision Zero at the Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT), explained that this helps to “make sure that as SDOT creates projects that aren’t exclusively Vision Zero projects, we're still creating safety projects.”

Louisville, KY, three years into Vision Zero, still faces high pedestrian fatality rates but is laying the groundwork for systemic change. An early focus is identifying high-value ways to embed safety measures systematically in the city’s work. One example is integrating safety changes into the city’s annual re-paving work. As they review paving schedules, they assess safety focusing on right-sizing four-lane roads. Over time, they’re also moving beyond paint to add delineator posts too.

“It’s not a small thing to change the culture, where for decades or generations you’ve designed roads and speed has just not even been a thought at all,” says Louisville’s Program Manager, Claire Yates. “When you’re in it for the long haul, you can start to change that culture slowly over time and just keep reminding folks that we don’t do it that way anymore. We do safety now. We design for safety now.”

Austin prioritizes institutionalizing safety within the City and among partners. “Internal capacity building and safety culture is a key part of operationalizing this idea of zero fatalities and injuries in the city,” said Joel Meyer, who leads Vision Zero efforts at the Austin Transportation and Public Works Department. Austin developed guidelines to more proactively identify areas of need and then to build more support for safety changes and Vision Zero staff lead public outreach.

Seattle uses a Complete Streets Checklist, requiring every major capital project to analyze crash patterns and integrate proactive safety elements such as no-turn-on-red policies. As Seattle Department of Transportation’s  (SDOT) Kristina Curtiss explains, this ensures “even projects not labeled ‘Vision Zero’ still deliver safety outcomes.” Seattle bolsters internal culture with a Vision Zero Community of Practice to grow internal champions and regular briefings to City Council to sustain political momentum. As Curtiss notes, “We stay grounded in the why — zero is the only acceptable number.”

3. Start Where You’re At, Make Change Where You Can

In Austin,  65-75% of traffic fatalities occur on state-owned roads. This is common, as many Vision Zero communities struggle with how to improve safety on state-owned roads, which account for disproportionate traffic deaths.

Austin’s Vision Zero work focuses on areas where it can have direct influence — local streets and signal systems. Still, as Austin’s Joel Meyer emphasized, you can’t give up on overcoming state-level barriers. His suggestions include finding the right people to collaborate with, building relationships and identifying areas of agreement.

Louisville faces an even more stark reality: 85% of the High Injury Network is on state roads. The city’s Vision Zero team has found some natural allies in the Kentucky Department of Transportation, which funds a significant amount of local road safety work and helped Louisville secure an important $30 million Safe Streets and Roads for All grant. Over time, the City has shifted its approach from telling the State “we’re making changes on your road” to “we need you to lead and develop a safety solution.” (Read about encouraging city-state collaboration in Ohio.)

Seattle benefits from the state's alignment on road safety. Washington recently became one of the first states to pass  Intelligent Speed Assistance (ISA) legislation, adding a powerful tool to the Vision Zero toolbox.

Looking Ahead

We know what works. We have real-world examples of progress. But safety is still too often treated as an optional add-on rather than a core measure of success.

The next decade must be about scaling up proven strategies, sustaining internal change, and facing — not avoiding — the barriers ahead.

Congratulations to these Vision Zero cities for their bold commitments and change. Progress is possible, but only if we persist.

Read our related blog, 10 Years Strong: Vision Zero Network Looks Back & Ahead, and Top 10 Ways to Reinforce Local Vision Zero Commitments and Top 10 Signs of Vision Zero Progress in the Past Decade.